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What process(es) do you recommend for collecting F/X (Foreign Exchange) cash flow forecasts internal to one's own company? (Webinar Attendee Question)
Answers
Hi Kurt,
I always recommend to use automated process, no spreadsheets. It is quicker and reduce the
You can use specific softwares, like FireApps or Reval, connected to your treasury software and TMS. If you do not have any treasury
Regards
I am unclear if you are asking about the collection of actual currency flows for the settling of hedge contracts or if you are asking about the anticipated transactions that would qualify for special “cash flow hedge
For capturing the anticipated transactions I recommend working closely with the FP&A organization. Unfortunately, they frequently ask for and process their forecast information in USD, totally losing sight of the underlying currency. If this is the case you need to educate them on how their forecast accuracy can be improved by asking the global organization to forecast in the currency the transactions will be based in. Then FPA must use updated rates to consolidate that information. This gives the FPA function the ability to quickly and easily respond to management inquiries on how does a 10 cent drop in the EUR impact the rest of this quarter, and the rest of the year--an impact that could be moderated by having a hedge program in place. It is crucial that the FP&A group know the rates and values protected by a hedge program to accurately project earnings
I'm not sure if this is the question you are asking but the subject of local currency forecast v. USD (i.e. 'CLC' - converted local currency) forecasts is a very interesting one. One would think the local currency forecasts / targeting are 'bullet proof' as compared to CLC because as Helen mentions above, and CLC number will have almost always have some error in it if the FX rates move... (100 EUR at 1.40 will be 140 CLC but at 1.20 will only thus be 120 CLC - so on the surface it seems far more accurate to utilize a 100 EUR forecast).
However, it is very interesting to observe the 'slippage' in local currency forecasts due to competitive dynamics. For example, we would often observe local currency price decreases that were more aggressive in a environment of local currency strength. (if the EUR moves to 1.4, that 100 EUR in revenue you were expecting actually only materialized into 95 EUR due to price cuts).